A disagreeable blog about Finance
A disagreeable blog about Finance
Posts focusing on macro analysis and outlook
Greetings! Long time no see huh? What did we do whilst the insanity trumped the markets, during the last a couple of months? Of course we’ve been hiding, under a rock, for it to end. If you recall, in November 2022 I wrote a specific closing paragraph, about what was probably going to happen from […]
2023 Resumption of trading operations. A look back at past positions, their outcome and an outlook for the upcoming year.
The FED, China, Midterms, and Crude Oil. I’m going full Nostradamus here. We are going to have a party ending with a massive rug pull.
In case you were scouting for a piece of good news, this isn’t it. The scale of the damage which is ripe to be unleashed on the crippled European Union makes the crash of Lehman Brother in 2008 pale in comparison.
Time to tie all strings together, by gauging what the people’s response is going to be: to the lockdowns, the real estate crash, everything. Is the Chinese Dream disappearing for good?
A look at the mismanagement of the Henan banking crisis. In it we read the tea leaves and try to evaluate the medium-term prospects for the banking sector in China. Oh, and bank runs are trendy again.
Why, exactly, people in China are starting to straight out refuse to pay their mortgage? In this part, we take the bottom-up approach to look at what is happening.
The hunt for safety and societal greed allowed the real estate bubble to to scale out of control. Chinese builders turned themselves into a ticking bomb. What happens next? Let’s find out, using Complex Systems and Chaos theory.
China is selling a very confident narrative. But the picture that emerges by scraping the numbers isn’t good. At all. Maybe some cracks in the Chinese Dream are starting to show?
The ECB did finally outline how the TPI is supposed to to work. I have read all that, and it’s a bunch of good intentions. Bet let’s dig deeper.